USDA: UAE chicken imports to recover 17 percent to 410,000 tonnes in 2027 after a shipping-hit 2026

USDA's Dubai post expects UAE chicken meat imports to recover to 410,000 tonnes in 2027, about 17 percent above a 2026 that was hit by Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption, with consumption rebounding to 485,000 tonnes.

The forecast comes from the Poultry and Products Annual for the United Arab Emirates (GAIN report TC2026-0010), dated 5 October 2026. The report estimates UAE chicken meat consumption at 425,000 tonnes in 2026, about 10 percent below 2025, attributing the fall mainly to temporary disruption of poultry import flows after regional geopolitical turmoil and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Imports for domestic consumption are put at 350,000 tonnes in 2026, down from 400,000 tonnes in 2025.

For 2027 the report forecasts imports of 410,000 tonnes for domestic consumption and consumption of 485,000 tonnes, assuming regional trade and shipping conditions normalise. It says recovery should be supported by alternative routes through the ports of Khorfakkan and Fujairah and by the UAE's expanding logistics infrastructure, alongside continued demand from construction, tourism and the hotel, restaurant and institutional sector.

• 2027 imports: 410,000 tonnes for domestic consumption, up about 17 percent on 350,000 tonnes in 2026.
• 2027 consumption: 485,000 tonnes, recovering from 425,000 tonnes in 2026, which was itself 10 percent below 2025.
• Domestic production: expected to stay at roughly 75,000 tonnes, meeting only 15-18 percent of consumption - the country remains a structural importer.
• Why 2026 fell: the report points to regional geopolitical turmoil and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Recovery routes: Khorfakkan and Fujairah, plus investment in UAE logistics capacity.
• Seasonality: the report expects Ramadan, which begins on 8 February 2027, to give a significant seasonal boost to poultry consumption.

For importers and foodservice buyers in the Gulf the message is straightforward: the UAE's poultry deficit is not going away, and 2027 volume will be planned earlier than usual because a large part of it is expected to land in the run-up to Ramadan. Contracts should be agreed with cold-chain capacity and documentation in mind, not only on the price line.

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Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, GAIN report TC2026-0010, Poultry and Products Annual - United Arab Emirates, Dubai post, dated 5 October 2026.