Thailand expects chicken exports to fall 4-5% in 2026 as China competes in cooked poultry and Middle East volumes slip

Thailand's broiler exporters now expect chicken shipments to contract by 4-5% in 2026 in both value and volume, reversing the 2% growth they projected at the start of the year, as Brazil returns to export markets and China undercuts Thai cooked chicken in the European Union.

Kukrit Areepakorn, manager of the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association, told Poultry & Meat Asia that Brazil's resumption of chicken exports, a drop in Thai chicken feet shipments to China and lower volumes to the European Union and the Middle East pushed the association from a 2% growth forecast to a 4-5% decline. Thailand's Ministry of Commerce data show exports of fresh, chilled and frozen chicken fell for a sixth consecutive month in June, down 15.3% year on year to USD 106.4 million. First-half exports in that category were down 19.2% to USD 595.5 million. Processed chicken has held up better: June shipments rose 8.2% to USD 282.8 million, with Japan, the Netherlands and Singapore among the growth markets, and first-half sales in the category gained 6.2% to USD 1.62 billion.

• 2026 outlook: a 4-5% year-on-year contraction in both value and volume, against a 2% growth forecast made earlier in the year.
• Middle East: shipments to the region are among the volumes the exporters' association lists as weaker, alongside the European Union.
• New competition: China has emerged as a rival in the EU cooked-chicken segment on lower production costs.
• Two-way trade: China's General Administration of Customs asked in January 2026 to export frozen poultry meat, cooked poultry meat and by-products such as chicken liver and goose liver to Thailand; Thailand's Department of Livestock Development says the request is still at the risk-assessment stage and no decision has been taken.
• Next lever: Thailand aims to conclude free trade agreements with the European Union and South Korea by the end of 2026 in search of higher quotas and lower tariffs.

For Gulf buyers the read-across is that less Thai and South American tonnage is being absorbed by Europe and Northeast Asia, and the volumes that do reach the Middle East will meet more competition from other origins. Origin, specification and certificate planning is better settled before shipment than after arrival.

Nau International Food Group supplies halal frozen poultry and frozen meat from HACCP-certified, GACC-registered plants, with halal certificates, veterinary health certificates and certificates of origin issued for each shipment. We arrange customs clearance and delivery into Dubai and onward distribution across the Gulf, Africa and Central Asia. For specifications, packing data and current offers, write to info@naufoodgroup.com.

Source: Asian Agribiz / Poultry & Meat Asia, 12 October 2026, citing the Thai Broiler Processing Exporters Association and Thailand's Ministry of Commerce.