UAE chicken imports forecast to rise 17% in 2027 as trade routes normalise; Ramadan order window opens in October-November

USDA expects UAE chicken meat imports to recover to 410,000 t in 2027 from an estimated 350,000 t in 2026, and says importers usually place Ramadan orders in October and November.

The forecast comes from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Poultry and Products Annual for the United Arab Emirates (Report TC2026-0010, Dubai post, 5 October 2026). USDA estimates UAE chicken meat consumption at 425,000 t in 2026, about 10 percent below 2025, and forecasts a recovery to 485,000 t in 2027 as regional trade and shipping conditions normalise. Imports for domestic consumption are projected at 350,000 t in 2026 and 410,000 t in 2027, roughly 17 percent growth.

The supply gap is structural. Local production is expected to stay at about 75,000 t in 2027, meeting only 15 to 18 percent of consumption, with imports covering around 85 percent of demand, mainly from Brazil and the United States. USDA reports total poultry imports, including transshipment and re-exports, of 301,000 t in the first half of 2026 against 327,000 t a year earlier, an 8 percent decline concentrated in the second quarter, when volumes fell about 19 percent year on year. Volumes still averaged more than 50,000 t a month.

Routing has adjusted. USDA cites the activation of alternative gateways at Khorfakkan and Fujairah, which sit outside the Strait of Hormuz, and notes Dubai Customs Notice No. 3/2026 of 8 March 2026, which allows containers arriving at those ports to move by road to Jebel Ali Port and the Dubai free zones without standard customs clearance at the first port. Notice No. 4/2026 of 12 March 2026 set up a Green Corridor with Omani seaports, with coordinated inspection at border crossings including Al Wajajah and Hatta.

• Consumption: 425,000 t in 2026, forecast 485,000 t in 2027.
• Imports for domestic consumption: 350,000 t estimated for 2026, 410,000 t forecast for 2027, about 17 percent growth.
• Local production: about 75,000 t a year, only 15 to 18 percent of consumption.
• First-half 2026 imports (including transshipment and re-exports): 301,000 t, down 8 percent year on year; second quarter down about 19 percent.
• Buying calendar: Ramadan 2027 is expected to begin around 8 February; USDA says importers typically build stocks from October and November 2026 for December and January arrivals.
• Compliance: a halal slaughter certificate from an approved certifier is required for poultry exports to the UAE, on top of origin and veterinary certification.

For buyers, the practical points are timing and documentation rather than price direction. Volumes for December and January arrivals are being fixed now, so reefer space and plant allocation are the binding constraints in the fourth quarter. Because cargo may enter through Khorfakkan or Fujairah and move by road to Jebel Ali, the certificate set has to match the actual port of entry and the customs route declared on the file.

Nau Food Group supplies frozen poultry and meat to Dubai and regional markets with halal, HACCP and full origin and health documentation, and can arrange customs clearance and delivery into Jebel Ali and the Dubai free zones. For December to February programmes: info@naufoodgroup.com.

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, GAIN Report TC2026-0010, Poultry and Products Annual - United Arab Emirates, Dubai, 5 October 2026.