Rabobank expects Brazil to push more chicken towards the Middle East while its EU access stays closed

Rabobank has raised its 2026 global poultry growth forecast to 3.5 percent, and expects Brazil - currently outside the EU market - to redirect volumes towards the Middle East among other destinations. For Gulf buyers that reads as more competing tonnage, not less.

In its Global Poultry Quarterly for the fourth quarter of 2026, published on 8 October, Rabobank said global poultry exports grew 10 percent in the second quarter of 2026 despite difficult trading conditions, with Brazil and China the main beneficiaries. It also warned that rapid production growth is not producing healthy market conditions everywhere: China, where output rose 9.5 percent year on year in the first half of 2026, is under the greatest oversupply pressure, alongside the United States, Japan, Vietnam and South Africa.

The trade map is being redrawn by access rather than by demand. With Brazil temporarily removed from the EU export market, Rabobank expects those volumes to be redirected to the United Kingdom, Japan, Mexico, the Middle East and Brazil's own domestic market, and expects that competition for market share to put downward pressure on prices. Thailand and Ukraine are seen gaining from Brazil's absence in Europe. On costs, the bank flagged higher and volatile feed ingredients, grains, oilseeds and energy, and on disease it shifted attention to the northern hemisphere winter, with vaccination programmes expected to spread and the policy debate around them to intensify.

• Growth: the 2026 global production forecast was raised to 3.5 percent, with exports up 10 percent in the second quarter.
• Where the tonnage goes: Brazil is expected to redirect EU-bound volumes to the UK, Japan, Mexico, the Middle East and its domestic market - more competing offers for Gulf buyers.
• Price direction: Rabobank expects that competition to press on prices, even as feed, grain and energy costs stay high and volatile.
• Risk overlay: northern-hemisphere avian influenza and access restrictions, not demand, are the variables most likely to interrupt a first-quarter 2027 programme.

The buying conclusion is to separate price from access. Softer Brazilian offers are worth locking only where the establishment and the region are still eligible for the destination market at the date of shipment, and where halal and veterinary documentation can be issued without amendment. Nau International Food Group supplies halal frozen poultry and frozen meat from HACCP-certified, GACC-registered plants (establishment numbers 0900 / 03003), with halal, veterinary health and certificate of origin issued for each shipment, and arranges customs clearance into Dubai, including DDP Jebel Ali, on request. For specifications, packing data and current offers, write to info@naufoodgroup.com.

Source: Rabobank, Global Poultry Quarterly Q4 2026, published 8 October 2026, as reported by Poultry World (Food & Agribusiness), 8 October 2026.