South Africa to import less chicken in 2027 as anti-dumping duties are renewed, USDA says

South Africa is set to import less chicken in 2027 as anti-dumping duties on frozen bone-in product are renewed, while domestic output rises.

USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service in Pretoria published its Poultry and Products Annual for South Africa this month. The report forecasts chicken meat production rising 3% to 1.73 million tonnes in marketing year 2027 (January to December 2027), supported by lower feed prices after the recovery of the local grain harvest. Chicken consumption is put at 1.97 million tonnes, with poultry still the most affordable protein for households while beef prices stay at record levels after the country's foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.

Imports are the part of the market that is closing rather than opening:

• Imports forecast 4% lower at 280,000 tonnes in 2026/27; USDA attributes the decline to continued anti-dumping duties and high tariffs that limit the competitiveness and market access of imported poultry.
• For 2026 the fall is estimated at only 2%, because several suppliers regained access after long-standing highly pathogenic avian influenza restrictions were lifted.
• In 2025 mechanically deboned meat accounted for 68% of South Africa's poultry imports and bone-in chicken for 25% — a mix weighted towards low-value, processing-grade material.
• On 14 August 2026 the International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) opened a sunset review of the anti-dumping duties on frozen bone-in chicken from Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The applicant, acting for the Southern African Customs Union, asked for the duties to be kept unchanged or increased, proposing 425.64% for Germany, 32.48% for the Netherlands and 61.84% for the United Kingdom.

For buyers and sellers across Africa and the Gulf the message is consistent: access to the Southern African market will keep being decided by trade defence cases and animal health status rather than by price alone, and the region's demand growth is being met mainly from domestic production. Predictability has to come from documentation, plant approvals and routing rather than from waiting for a market to open.

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Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS Pretoria), “South Africa: Poultry and Products Annual”, September 2026; ITAC sunset review initiated 14 August 2026.