Brazil's chicken output and exports head for fresh records in 2027 as it leans on halal markets, USDA says

USDA expects Brazil's chicken meat output to reach a record 16.3 million tonnes in 2027 and exports 5.5 million tonnes, with halal markets carrying the strategy while the EU stays closed.

USDA's post in Brasilia forecasts Brazilian chicken meat production of 16.3 million tonnes in 2027, a record and 2% above 2026, and exports of 5.5 million tonnes, up 4% - keeping Brazil the world's largest chicken meat exporter. Domestic consumption is forecast at 10.8 million tonnes, up 1%, so about 66% of production stays at home. The report, Poultry and Products Annual (BR2026-0037, 15 September 2026), bases the forecast on consistent external demand, a weak real (R$5.15 per USD in August 2026, forecast at R$5.30 for 2027), lower feed costs with record soybean and corn crops projected, and the government's market-opening drive. Brazil's commercial flocks are currently free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

• Halal markets stay the centre of gravity: the report states that Brazil continues to focus on halal markets for exports. Brazil is the world's largest supplier of halal chicken, and the Gulf, North Africa and Asia are its principal destinations.
• The EU is closed: since 3 September 2026 Brazil can no longer export poultry, beef and other animal-origin products to the EU after the European Commission removed the country from its list over guarantees on antimicrobial use. Brazil shipped close to 125,700 tonnes of chicken to the EU in January-July 2026, up 49.9% year-on-year, as exporters front-loaded ahead of the ban. The EU takes only 3.9% of Brazil's chicken exports but is treated as a “display” market because of its high regulatory standards.
• Re-entry timeline: the Commission audited Brazil's poultry and honey chains from 24 August to 4 September 2026. Results take weeks to months, and if they are positive the member states could vote on re-listing Brazil at the sessions of 20-21 October or 16-17 November 2026.
• New markets: Brazil opened 139 new markets between January and July 2026, 12 of them related to poultry and poultry products.
• HPAI exposure without regionalisation: Brazil is negotiating regionalisation clauses in its health certificates so that an outbreak in commercial operations would close only the affected zone instead of the whole country. As of the report, no agreement had been reached.
• Gulf pull: according to FAS Brasilia's earlier semi-annual report (BR2026-0012), the UAE became the largest destination for Brazilian chicken meat in 2025 with close to 480,070 tonnes, up 5.5%, and 119 Brazilian plants are authorised to ship poultry to the UAE.

For buyers in the Gulf and Africa the near-term reading is comfortable availability and firm competition among exporting origins, because Brazilian tonnage that used to go to Europe has to find homes elsewhere. Two variables are worth watching: the EU's decision in October or November, which would pull volumes back into Europe, and whether Brazil finally wins regionalisation, which determines how exposed its whole export programme is to a single HPAI finding. Until both are settled, a supplier base that is documented, certified and diversified is worth more than the lowest offer.

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Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, GAIN report BR2026-0037, “Brazil: Poultry and Products Annual” (FAS Brasilia, 15 September 2026); destination figures from GAIN BR2026-0012 (FAS Brasilia, March 2026).