USDA: China and Turkey gain export share as US poultry shipments slip in 2027; Ghana holds above 500,000 tonnes

USDA's 9 October outlook has global chicken meat trade 3 percent higher in 2027 at nearly 15.6 million tonnes - with China and Turkey taking export share from a shrinking US position while West African import demand keeps climbing.

The figures come from the chicken meat tables of Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade, published by USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service on 9 October 2026. Global production is forecast 2 percent higher at 114.9 million tonnes and exports 3 percent higher at nearly 15.6 million tonnes, with China's output rising almost 6 percent to 19.0 million tonnes on sufficient breeding stock, relatively stable corn and soybean meal prices, and new integrated capacity.

• China: exports forecast to surge 25 percent to 1.9 million tonnes, lifting its share of world chicken trade from 7.6 percent in 2025 to 12.5 percent in 2027.
• Turkey: exports recovering to 525,000 tonnes from 415,000 tonnes in 2026, after government export restrictions during last year's peak consumption period.
• Ukraine: 530,000 tonnes in 2027 from 490,000 tonnes in 2026, mainly on larger volumes to the United Kingdom.
• United States: exports 1 percent lower at 3.0 million tonnes, with market share falling from 21.3 percent in 2025 to 19.3 percent in 2027; USDA cites weak price competitiveness, limited product offerings, reduced demand in several key markets and lingering HPAI-related restrictions.
• Ghana: imports put at 525,000 tonnes in 2027 after 520,000 tonnes in 2026 - up from 394,000 tonnes in 2025 and 331,000 tonnes in 2024.
• Brazil: still the largest exporter at nearly 5.5 million tonnes, but growth of only 1 percent as the loss of EU access caps expansion.

For buyers the structure of supply matters as much as the totals. More Chinese, Turkish and Ukrainian product is competing in international trade while US supply becomes less competitive on price and range, which widens the choice of origins available to Gulf and African importers - and raises the weight carried by plant approvals, certification and documentary discipline when qualifying a new supplier.

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Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade, chicken meat trade tables, 9 October 2026 (volumes in ready-to-cook equivalent).