USDA: China's chicken output heading for 19 million tonnes in 2027, exports up 25 percent to 1.92 million tonnes

China is on course to produce 19 million tonnes of chicken in 2027 and to export 1.92 million tonnes, a combination that would make it the world's third-largest chicken exporter and keep Chinese cuts the price benchmark for buyers in Africa and the Middle East.

The figures come from the USDA chicken meat projections reported by Valor International on 16 October 2026. Chinese production is estimated at 18 million tonnes in 2026, up 9 percent, against domestic consumption of 16.84 million tonnes, up 7.2 percent. For 2027 the agency projects production of 19 million tonnes, up 5.5 percent, and consumption of 17.475 million tonnes, up 3.7 percent.

The gap between output and domestic demand is what drives the export line. USDA expects Chinese chicken exports of 1.54 million tonnes in 2026, up 42 percent from 2025, and 1.92 million tonnes in 2027, up 25 percent. On those numbers China ranked fifth among exporters in 2025 with 8 percent of world trade, is set to rank fourth in 2026, and would take third place in 2027, ahead of the European Union.

• Production: 18 million tonnes in 2026 (+9 percent) and 19 million tonnes in 2027 (+5.5 percent).
• Consumption: 16.84 million tonnes in 2026 (+7.2 percent) and 17.475 million tonnes in 2027 (+3.7 percent).
• Exports: 1.54 million tonnes in 2026 (+42 percent on 2025) and 1.92 million tonnes in 2027 (+25 percent).
• Why supply is growing: USDA cites a sufficient breeding flock, relatively stable corn and soybean meal prices, and continued investment in processing capacity.
• Price gap: Chinese breast meat and leg quarters are quoted 10 to 20 percent below Brazilian product, according to Lisbon-based meat trader Branexx, whose chief executive Ezequiel Pires told Reuters that African customers began asking for Chinese chicken as a cheaper alternative from March 2026.
• Market share shift: consultancy Gira data cited by Reuters shows China doubling its share of the EU processed poultry market to 10 percent since 2022 and tripling its UK presence to more than 14 percent.

Two consequences follow for buyers in the Gulf and Africa. First, 2027 supply looks ample rather than tight, which argues against paying a premium for forward positions taken far ahead of need. Second, a larger Chinese export programme raises the value of documentation discipline: halal certification, residue and veterinary controls, and origin papers decide whether a container actually clears, not the quoted price per tonne.

Nau Food Group supplies frozen poultry and meat to Dubai and regional markets with halal, HACCP and full origin and health documentation, and can arrange customs clearance and delivery to Jebel Ali and the Dubai free zones. For 2027 supply planning, write to info@naufoodgroup.com.

Source: USDA chicken meat projections as reported by Valor International / Globo Rural, 16 October 2026.