Industry Trends
Kazakhstan imported 13,800 tonnes of Chinese poultry in the first half of 2026, 570 percent more than a year earlier, at an average of US$961 per tonne, the cheapest among its main suppliers. China's poultry shipments to Russia also overtook Russian shipments to China in August.
China suspended imports from 14 Santa Catarina plants on 20 October 2026 after Newcastle disease was confirmed on a turkey farm, and Chile and Mexico also restricted Brazilian product. Saudi Arabia is expected to limit its own ban to the same state.
Mexico suspended imports of Brazilian chicken meat, offal, fertile eggs and live birds from 19 October 2026 after Newcastle disease was confirmed on a turkey farm in Santa Catarina. It is the second major market to close to Brazilian poultry this week.
USDA's Dubai post reports UAE consumer-oriented food imports of $17.7 billion in 2025, up 9.3 percent, and grocery retail sales above $20 billion, up 6.3 percent. Retail growth of about 3 percent is projected for 2026.
Brazil suspended poultry exports to China from 19 October 2026 after Newcastle disease was confirmed at a commercial turkey unit in Santa Catarina. The state accounts for around 15% of Brazilian poultry output, and China took about 10% of Brazil's chicken exports in the first nine months of the year.
FAO's meat price index averaged 127.9 points in September 2026, down 1.1% month on month, as poultry quotations eased on ample Brazilian export supply and weaker EU import demand. Feed grains moved the other way: maize rose 5.6% to a more than three-year high and wheat 6.3%, with freight and fuel uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz adding to costs.
The Organic Meat Company, which ships beef, mutton and camel meat to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and more than 13 other markets, reported net profit of PKR 112.35 million for the year to 30 June 2026, down 74%, on sales 12% lower at PKR 12.38 billion, with higher credit-loss provisions and war-related shipping disruption cited among the pressures.
USDA's Dubai post forecasts UAE chicken meat imports for domestic consumption at 410,000 t in 2027, up from an estimated 350,000 t in 2026, with consumption recovering to 485,000 t. Importers typically place Ramadan orders in October and November 2026 for December and January arrivals.
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2268, in force from 8 October 2026, blocks live poultry, hatching eggs and fresh poultry meat from six named zones in Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States after H5N1, H5N5 and H5 detections. Unaffected regions of the same three countries keep access.
Scheduled weekly capacity through the Bab el-Mandeb reached 448,273 TEU on 5 October 2026, double the level of late August and 48 percent of the August 2023 figure, according to Xeneta. Longer Suez routings cut voyage time to the Gulf and ease reefer equipment pressure, while Far East to Mediterranean spot rates rose 3.2 percent in the week to 16 October.
USDA projects Chinese chicken production at 18 million tonnes in 2026, up 9 percent, and 19 million tonnes in 2027, with exports rising 42 percent to 1.54 million tonnes this year and a further 25 percent to 1.92 million tonnes next year. That would move China from fifth to third among world chicken exporters, ahead of the European Union.
USDA's Dubai post forecasts UAE chicken meat consumption recovering to 485,000 tonnes in 2027 from an estimated 425,000 tonnes in 2026, with imports for domestic consumption rising about 17 percent to 410,000 tonnes as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalises. Local output covers only 15-18 percent of demand, and Dubai Customs has opened Khorfakkan/Fujairah overland facilitation to Jebel Ali.
