FAO: poultry prices held flat in October while feed grain fell 4.5% - the cost relief is not reaching buyers yet

Poultry was the one category that did not fall in October: the FAO meat index eased 1.2% on cheaper pig, beef and sheep meat, while chicken quotations held flat even as feed grain dropped 4.5%.

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points in October 2026, down 1.6 points or 1.2% from its revised September level and 5.9% higher than a year earlier, the agency reported on 6 November. The decline came from cereals, dairy and meat; sugar rose 6.6% and vegetable oils 0.3%.

The meat index averaged 125.5 points, down 1.2% month on month but still slightly above October 2025. Pig meat led the fall on abundant European Union supplies and weak export demand; ovine meat retreated from record highs as larger Australian supplies reached the market; bovine meat eased slightly on lower Australian quotations. Poultry was the exception. FAO described chicken prices as little changed, with steady international demand absorbing ample global supplies. Brazilian export quotations were broadly unchanged despite import restrictions imposed by some buyers after Newcastle disease was first detected in Santa Catarina on 18 October, because regionalisation arrangements with major trading partners limited the disruption.

The cost side moved the other way. The cereal index fell to 116.8 points, down 4.5% from September and 12.6% below October 2025, as wheat, maize, barley and sorghum all eased on subdued import demand, harvest pressure in the United States and better prospects in Argentina and South America. Feed is the largest single cost in chicken production, so a 4.5% monthly fall in grain quotations widens the gap between what a plant pays for feed and what it can charge for meat.

• Poultry: flat, not falling. Steady demand met ample supply and the market cleared without a price decline.
• Feed grain: -4.5% in a month, -12.6% year on year. That relief lands first in the producing country, not on the import price at the port.
• Brazilian quotations unchanged after Newcastle disease. Regionalisation, not a blanket ban, kept product moving - the same mechanism Gulf buyers depend on.
• What it means for a first-quarter 2027 contract: with grain cheaper and chicken firm, exporters are more likely to hold offers than cut them; a lower feed bill is an argument for negotiating hard on volume, not for waiting for a price collapse.

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Source: FAO Food Price Index and Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, released 6 November 2026, Rome.